The damage from tariffs is starting to show in slowing global trade. It has not appeared yet, but the US could turn out the  biggest loser because people are avoiding U.S. goods and travel to the country.

In Canada we are beginning to feel the pain from Trump. Specifically, real GDP, which measures the total monetary value of goods and services produced in a country, declined 0.4 per cent after a 0.5 per cent gain the previous quarter,  Statistics Canada said. Annualized, the economy shrank 1.6 per cent in the second quarter, slowing from growth of two per cent in the first quarter of 2025. Exports declined by 7.5 per cent in the quarter, after rising 1.4 per cent in the first quarter. 

In this situation, foreign income is directed to Washington without providing noticeable advantages to the average American.  About the only thing it does is help Washington pay the interest on its ever-growing debt, but there will be no overall benefit for the U.S. economy unless the tariffs end in tax cuts which Trump promised.  Time will tell; however, we doubt this will occur because their debt is skyrocketing like ours, 

Global trade of goods survives on disposable income which the tariffs deplete. Because businesses pass taxes and tariffs to customers, prices are increasing and driving buyers away.   This can only get worse as people have limited savings.  The tariffs will prove to be a fast road to the poor house.

Trump’s policies are already beginning to cause job losses in Canada. Many small businesses have closed and more may soon follow.  According to the Canadian Federation of Independent Business, one in five small business owners report they will not last more than six months if the tariff status quo remains, and four in 10 (38 per cent) said they would last less than a year. This sector is the largest employer in the economy.

Trump was not lying when he said he could take us over by strangling us economically rather than by force. He is already making Canada poorer so Canadians will eventually demand we join the U.S. to avoid all those tariffs. Many people hold the view that joining the US may not align with Canada's interests; however, establishing a free-trade union with a shared currency, similar to the European Union model, could offer economic advantages for both countries.  

There is simply no way of denying it,   the US is our most important trading partner. This will never change because of our proximity to each other. And we will always rely on their military to protect our borders which costs them billions every year because the fact is our small population cannot afford to defend ourselves. We should be grateful for this, but we are not. It may be time for us to meet halfway.

Canada is divided as a nation for good reason. At the end of the day our provinces have far more in common economically and culturally with their neighbors south to them rather than those to the east and to the west. Alberta is not like BC which has much more in common with Washington state, Oregan and California. The Prairies have more in common with  Montana and North Dakota than they do Ontario because Ontario is more like Michigan and New York, and the East coast shares characteristics of Maine and surrounding states.  Quebec is on its own planet,  and to be honest, the country would benefit if Quebec was booted out of confederation. We are at the point now where all provinces should govern themselves based on their own best interests rather than having Ontario and Quebec dictate what is best for Canada as a whole.    

Outside of our natural resources, we can also stop pretending that finding trading partners across the ocean will replace the demand from the US. It never will. If anything, it is going to work against us  because it is cheaper to truck goods across the border whereas shipping goods across an ocean will increase the cost of the good  and become an incentive for manufacturing to relocate. Specifically, the time and cost of shipping across the ocean can easily be mitigated by relocating operations to the destination region.

Canada is one of the richest in the world when it comes to resources.  We have an abundance of water, farmland, forests, metals, and oil.  We also have excellent universities,  and while it is falling apart, our medical system is still admired by many nations across the globe. Other than poor leadership, there is no excuse for us to not be successful.

Carney thinks cutting time to get all necessary documents to build a project  down to around 6 years is good.  This is down from 10 to 12 years.  Most countries spend around 2 years to get all the documents.  The next election is 3.5 years away.  So, nothing will get done.  It has been 48 years of talking about building an all-season road to develop the Ring of Fire rare earth mines located in Northern Ontario.  In other words, the real problem is Liberals refuse to develop what the country has. 

Since 2015 our productivity has grown by 2% compared to 18% in the US.  This means we are not competitive and that the Liberals do not care. It also tells us that we would be better governed by the U.S.

Sadly, our political system is designed to allow Ontario and Quebec voters decide our leaders. And they continue to vote in people who are all talk and care only about themselves. To survive as a nation, we need leaders who can see a future for Canada.  Today’s bunch are intent to drag us down further.  It is time for another election. We need people who care for the future of Canada. If not, forming a union with the US would be in Canada’s best interest. 

Climate Carney Scam

“Every financial decision must take climate into account. That means new reporting standards, new scoring systems, and new oversight bodies.”

                   …Mark Carney

Carney worked for Brookfield Asset Management between 2020 and 2024 and helped build Brookfield Renewable. It should be noted that while he was working for the company, he coached Justin Trudeau climate change policies. Below are a few samples of how the company has prepared for a Liberal mandated net-zero policy even though many countries are walking away from the movement. I can't understand how Canadians do not see a conflict of interest between Carney and what once was one of Canada’s largest taxpayers prior to him helping relocate it to the US.  There are so many more questionable transactions than below Brookfield made that will benefit from Carney’s "green" energy transition.

• In 2018 while Carney was busy orchestrating the climate change policies at the WEF that woke governments across the globe signed up for. During this time  Brookfield purchased a conventional car battery company that will easily be retooled to EV batteries.  “Brookfield and Caisse placed a $13-billion bet on conventional car battery maker Johnson Controls’ which shipped 154 million automotive lead-acid batteries in 2017.”  In EV era, Brookfield and Caisse place $13-billion bet on conventional car battery maker | Financial Post

• “Brookfield Invests Billions in Carbon Capture and Decarbonization” Brookfield Invests Billions in Carbon Capture and Decarbonization

• “Shoals Technologies Group and Brookfield Renewable have announced a strategic agreement  to introduce an innovative Charging-as-a-Service solution for EV."  Shoals Technologies Group, Inc. and Brookfield Renewable Announce Strategic Partnership to Launch Charging-as-a-Service Solution

• Brookfield announced that it has reached the final institutional close for the Brookfield Global Transition Fund (BGTF) with total capital raised of $15 billion, making it the world’s largest private fund dedicated to facilitating the global transition to a net-zero carbon economy. BGTF, co-headed by Mark Carney and Connor Teskey, focuses on investments to accelerate the global transition to a net zero economy. Approximately $2.5 billion has been deployed or allocated, spanning a range of decarbonization technologies with investments in solar, battery, and carbon capture at significant scale. Mark Carney, Brookfield Vice Chair and Head of Transition Investing, said: “With the global carbon budget being rapidly run down, now is the time for comprehensive, determined action. That means deploying capital across the economic spectrum from scaling clean energy generation, to transforming traditional utilities and to providing sustainable solutions for heavy industries like steel and cement. This Fund provides significant scale of capital with catalytic long-term investment the world needs to help put our planet on a sustainable net-zero pathway.” Brookfield Raises Record $15 Billion For Inaugural Global Transition Fund | Brookfield Corporation

• Brookfield Asset Management Ltd. and Canada Growth Fund announced they have entered into a strategic investment agreement with Entropy Inc., a developer of technologically-advanced carbon capture and sequestration projects. This investment is part of a broader strategy to expand Entropy's footprint in carbon capture and sequestration, supported by a $300 million investment from Brookfield Renewable and the Canada Growth Fund, a federal clean-tech financing agency (backed by taxes).  Under the terms of the 15-year deal, the CGF has agreed to buy up to 1 million tonnes a year of carbon credits for $86.50 per ton generated by Entropy. The second phase of the commitment would see the fund buy another 415,000 metric tons – for a total of 600,000 – annually from Entropy at a similar fixed price for projects elsewhere in Canada.   Canada Growth Fund Announces Strategic Investment

• “Canada has a tremendous opportunity to be the world’s leading energy superpower, in both clean and conventional energy,” said Mark Carney, Leader of the Liberal Party of Canada. “We are going to aggressively develop projects that are in the national interest to protect Canada’s energy security, diversify our trade, and enhance our long-term competitiveness – all while reducing emissions. We can lead the energy transition while ensuring affordable energy at home and building the strongest economy in the G7. ” Mark Carney’s Liberals to make Canada the world’s leading energy superpower | Liberal Party of Canada

Canada’s federal and provincial governments have already earmarked up to $52.5 billion of taxpayers’ money to subsidize 13 major EV projects in Canada.  That’s $6.3 billion, or 14%, more than the $46.1 billion the industry itself is investing in them, according to the parliamentary budget officer. Meanwhile, EV sales dropped by almost a third in May compared to a year ago, comprising a mere 7.9% of all new car sales, according to Statistics Canada. That’s far below the federal government mandate that begins next year, requiring that zero emission vehicles — meaning battery-electric, hydrogen fuel cell or plug-in hybrid — account for 20% of all new car sales, rising to 60% in 2030 and 100% in 2035.

Not surprising, our ethical leader also promised to fast track clean energy projects. Brookfield is oddly well situated for Carney’s energy “transition”. How is there not a conflict of interest between the two?

“No chemical compound in the atmosphere has a worse reputation than CO2, thanks to the single-minded demonization of this natural and essential atmospheric gas by advocates of government control and energy production. The incredible list of supposed horrors that increasing carbon dioxide will bring the world is pure belief disguised as science. About fifty million years ago geological evidence indicates CO2 levels were several thousand ppm, much higher than now. And life flourished abundantly.”

  …William Happer  Professor of Physics, emeritus, at Princeton University

Climate: The Movie https://youtu.be/zmfRG8-RHEI

This film exposes the climate alarm as an invented scare without any basis in science. It shows that official data do not support the claim that we are witnessing an increase in extreme weather events – hurricanes, droughts, heatwaves and wildfires.

It emphatically counters the claim that current temperatures and levels of atmospheric CO2 are unusually and worryingly high. On the contrary, compared to the last half billion years of earth’s history, both current temperatures and CO2 levels are unusually low. The earth is currently in an ice age. It also shows that there is no evidence that changing levels of CO2 (it has changed many times) has ever ‘driven’ climate change in the past. The film explores the nature of the consensus behind climate change. It describes the origins of the climate funding bandwagon, and the rise of the trillion-dollar climate industry.

Carney was Trudeau’s mentor for five years, so his cabinet is nothing but a continuation of Trudeau’s horrible policies. This ensures he will not be the saviour his voters believe him to be. 

Instead of attempting to negotiate with our largest trading partner he took a holiday.  Unlike Trudeau, or any past PM for that matter, he did not disclose the location for some reason. Perhaps it was because he wanted to meet his Brookfield buddies in private to discuss the business his green policies will generate for the company and how much their shares will benefit. Trudeau lacked brain cells whereas Carney has far more than average, but he could very well be dumb enough to try and get away with corruption far greater than what occurred under Trudeau. 

As a former governor of two central banks, Carney must know that his main job as prime minister is to not just protect the value of the currency but always work at pushing it higher. Strong currencies create prosperity because it lowers the cost of imports which increases disposable income and accommodates lower interest rates that attracts foreign capital. As soon as Trudeau was given the boot the Loonie began to recover and went from 69.7 cents to 73.74 cents on June 16th.  Lately the dollar has slid back to 73 cents, a sign of declining faith in Carney.  

Carney is on record stating he will increase spending. Given he hasn’t released a budget yet, he is most likely holding true to his word. This is scary because there is not a budget  surplus to bank on so his spending will be via debt and higher taxes, even though our finances are already near the breaking point. What is also concerning about this is that not only does he want to spend like crazy, but he also wants carte blanche doing it. This was evident when Carney’s good friend and Canada’s new Natural Resources Minister, Tim Hodgson, stated that the government will not publicly discuss any of the projects that Carney plans to “fast-track” for approval until they’re finalized. Moves like this undermines democracy because these decisions need to be made publicly through debate rather by one individual behind closed doors. Especially when it comes to tax dollars.

He is pushing forward with Net-Zero policies. His obsession with EV’s proves he does not care about consumer freedoms.  Like Trudeau he feels he is smarter than everyone else and believes he should dictate our lives. If this was not true, why is he banning the ICE by 2035 and reintroducing a $5000 subsidy for EV’s when clearly people do not want them? He also believes removing CO2 from the atmosphere via carbon capture will save the planet when in fact life thrives during periods of higher CO2 levels. There is clearly something going on behind the scenes. Perhaps it is the numerous green companies owned by Brookfield; the Canadian corporate titan he helped relocate to a tax haven.    

Both Carney and his wife are devout Greens. She works for Eurasia Group, a climate change think tank the Liberals support.   Both want to close the oil and natural gas industry and will try to delay any attempt to build pipelines.  This is despite the fact the sector is the country’s biggest tax generator and has no need to market itself because customers like Japan, Germany, and South Korea come begging for it. Trudeau, most likely at Carney’s advice, told these allies to go elsewhere and they did. It is also more than likely that Eastern Europe would be more than happy to purchase our oil and natural gas at the expense of Russia. Of course, no one in the Liberal Party cares. This is worrying because Africa has made numerous natural gas discoveries that our allies will purchase even though they would prefer ours.  

Canada cannot afford another Liberal term.  Each day Carney stalls on taking advantage of our oil, Canada’s productivity will continue to slide to last place amongst the 32 countries in the OECD (we currently rank 30^th compared to 15^th  ten years ago). Yet Canada has the best potential of all countries. We need a new government that wants prosperity.

Avoid speculative assets. They will eventually get slaughtered because people will try to salvage what little capital is left. It is a joke that something like Bitcoin is over $100,000 when it is back solely on the Greater Fool theory rather than assets and cashflow. Furthermore, we suggest you avoid the US markets for now because Trump is determined to shrink the U.S. economy. Since he became President, money started to flow out of the U.S., much like Canada under our decade long Liberal reign.

For the next few quarters, we will witness Trump’s policies on corporate earnings globally. It will not be pretty. Pay heed to Warren Buffett’s mantra “be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful”.  Protect your savings today and eliminate all debt. If you do not have the cash, you do not spend. Depending on one’s age build up insured GICs to between 35% and 60% of the portfolio even if interest rates are low. Those that lose the most are the ones who never remember the largest gains are realized by waiting for prices to come to you. And they will considering today’s crazy valuations, no matter the asset.

Continue to hold shares that pay increasing dividends like most of our recommendations. There is a chance they will all raise them again over the next year. If you bought when we first suggested than the dividends are paying double digit yields on your initial capital. BMO pays us 12.4%, Canadian Utilities yields 13%, and Pembina Pipeline and  Enbridge pay us 21% and 26% annually, respectively. If you believe in the future of Canada as we do, the power of compounding will continue to reward you.

How North America’s stock markets hold up is hard to figure out when the news continues to be negative.  The three biggest threats are politics, consumer spending, and the potential for war in the Middle East.

Today, based on the average price-earnings ratio (P/E) dating back to 1954, all North American stock markets are in expensive territory. The Toronto stock market is the cheapest.  Based on its P/E, investors believe it will take roughly 3.7 years for profits to double, which is impossible under Trump's policies. Using the same metric, the DJIA is priced as if profits will double in 2.9 years, the S&P 500 in 2.7 years, and the NASDAQ in just two years.  This has never happened as far as we know.  The norm since 1954 has been roughly 4.8 years. Take this as a warning. 

The U.S. economy was already heading towards a recession under Biden.  Trump is now sealing the deal with his tariffs, like the ones on the EU beginning July 9^th.  He also told Apple, one of the most successful companies based out of the U.S., to make the iPhone at home to avoid a 25% tariff.  Depending on the model it could cost buyers up to $2000 extra to be built in America.  Trump does not understand consumers have a limited amount of discretionary income and paying any tariff will mean less spending elsewhere.   He must obviously forget that most consumers live cheque to cheque. 

Thanks to his policies, the U.S. is fast becoming a place to move your money out of.  We would not hold any U.S. dollars or invest in American stocks now. They are already over-valued  and the full effect of tariffs have not worked their way through the economy yet. The smart money is already starting to unload their U.S. dollars. This is evident with Asian stock markets doing well when the American’s are flat to down. Asia is not waiting for Trumps temper tantrums to subside and is arranging new trade treaties with dependable governments.  

PM Carney for now has luck on his side because Trump is creating so much trouble.  The world wants to invest in stable and safe countries.  If Carney plays his cards right and opens our energy sector and cuts the size of government, foreign capital flight from Canada will reverse itself. He will build confidence in Canada if he eliminates Bill-C69 which does not allow tankers off our West Coast.  Carney should also be signing up the six countries that want to buy our natural gas. We also need a federal budget today. Instead, we must wait until after the Liberals get  their much-needed summer holiday after working only half the year. 

We can see the Loonie rising to 75 cents U.S. by the new year.  If Trump continues with his stupidity, then we will see an 80 cent Loonie in over a year’s time. This will be good for Canada because a rising currency helps to kill inflation and keeps interest rates low: Both of which attract foreign investment and increase government tax revenue. Stay away from all American securities.  If you own lots of U.S. dollars convert them back into the Loonie.  If Carney does not turn net-zero we predict the Loonie will be worth 75 cents by year end. 

Unless Israel causes a larger war in the Middle East, we expect the world stock markets to be flat to slightly down during the summer months.  It is the fall months that we should be worried about because most of the useless tariffs will be in affect. Only large businesses with pricing power will navigate the storm while many small-to-medium businesses will be decimated.  

It takes years for an economy to unwind and it is better to get out early. To protect your savings, keep most of your funds in insured GICs, with a one-year term, depending on your age. If you are retired and do not have the money to speculate with, cash equivalents should be 60% of your investments, even if rates are low. It is important to remember that the largest gains occur when you wait for the market to come to you.  

We are not concerned about our holdings. Pipelines and oil companies will be volatile, but the good ones will continue to increase their dividend if oil remains the main ingredient in the 6500 goods the world cannot live without. If our recommendations get into financial trouble, it means the public has cut back on spending and all markets will be in trouble. However, companies that have the cash flow to support a dividend always has a floor under their share price.  Carney and the Bank of Canada can hopefully read the tea leaves and smooth out troubles that may occur.  If they do, Canada can become the winner.  

The world has avoided deflation for decades because of falling interest rates accommodate the increased lending needed to keep prices from falling. However, this debt hangover will lead to trouble.  While not a problem yet, banks are nervous about many of their used car loans being worth substantially less. The good news is that Canadian banks are probably safest in the world thanks to the Bank of Canada’s strict reserve requirements set three years ago. If the economy slows during the summer months an interest rate cut will occur in early fall.  Thereafter rates may begin a demand driven series of increases from governments, businesses, and consumers needing to borrow large sums of money to keep things going.  

There is too much speculation going on when Trump’s policies guarantee tough times are coming.  All markets eventually react to the real world and a correction is overdue.  We have no idea when, but they will, so prepare today for market turmoil.  We cannot stress enough, if you cannot afford to lose a big chunk of your savings then do not wait for the correction and begin protecting yourself today.  Like a bull market, bear markets also overshoot because people become scared and try to sell to protect what little is left of their savings. The chart says it all.  Stocks are overvalued and will correct further than people expect.

Chart: Shiller PE Ratio - Multpl

 “No matter if the science [of global warming] is all phony . . . climate change [provides] the greatest opportunity to bring about justice and equality in the world.” —Christine Stewart, Canadian Minister of the Environment, Calgary Herald, 1998 (Chretien was PM)

“I gave a talk recently (on fallacies of global warming) and three members of the Canadian government, the environmental cabinet, came up afterwards and said, ‘We agree with you, but it’s not worth our jobs to say anything.’ So, what’s being created is a huge industry with billions of dollars of government money and people’s jobs dependent on it.” – Dr. Tim Ball, Coast-to-Coast, 2007 (Harper was PM)

The negative effect of global warming is political. The policies enacted for the movement are intended to accommodate an industry estimated to be worth $40b.  Nothing will change with Carney. The new cabinet is filled with climate extremists who should welcome a warming planet.  The Earth’s climate has swung back and forth between a greehnouse gas phase and a glacial one since the planet came to exist.  Large-scale industrialization, and its ‘contaminant’ emissions, has come to be just in the last 150 or so years. If industry was such a large threat, why has the average lifespan of most living things grown exponentially during this period?   

As the earth warms more carbon dioxide is created naturally which in return allows vegetation to flourish. If this was not the case, why would greenhouses increase CO2 levels to over 1000ppm to increase the growth and quality of their products?  Today’s 440ppm of carbon in the atmosphere should be welcomed rather than feared since anything below 200ppm and the earth begins to fall apart.   The average ppm over the last half-billion years has been over 2000 and it was these periods that produced the largest forms of life. Clearly today too little CO2 is the issue, not more. 

Over the last four decades, the Earth has seen an increase in foliage around the planet. The greening represents an area two times the continental United States. Data from NASA satellites shows that China and India are leading the increase in greening on land. While the effect stems largely from ambitious tree planting programs (which the Liberals promised to do but never delivered on) and increased agriculture in both countries, this is only possible because of a warming planet. Farmers are producing  enough food to supply the whole world meaning starvation should no longer be an issue. In fact, most countries have an obesity problem. The fact is there is no excuse for anyone anywhere to go hungry, other than politics.

It becomes tiring listening to the Greens continuingly blaming environmental changes on fossil fuels. Once the supply chain is factored in, renewable energy produces just as many emissions as the natural gas plants they depend on for backup. With recent NG discoveries throughout Africa the world has roughly 300 years’ worth of reserves. The truth is that NG will be one of the cheapest forms of energy for at least the rest of this century. The price will most likely trade between $1.50 and $3.50 and means NG demand can only get bigger.  Furthermore, switching from fossil fuels will make no change to GHG levels.  Covid shutdowns proved this when ghg’s continued to increase while most of the industrialized economies were on lockdown.

Coal is the dirtiest form of energy. It supplies over forty percent of the world’s electricity, is used in 78 nations, and more countries are expected to join the list.   Coal can very easily be replaced by clean natural gas.  If the Climate Clan was legit, they would pressure coal lovers such as China, India, and the U.S. to clean up their act. But they won’t. They would prefer to create a state of emergency over a gas that is responsible for the creation of oxygen. They use fear as a way of raising money for themselves. If they really cared about the environment, they should be forcing the world’s dependence on coal out by pushing natural gas. But this will never happen because there is too much at stake. Just ask Carney.

Canada must hope the Liberals tone down their climate extremism.  We will be left in the dust unless we start to take advantage of  our fossil fuels.  While trying to destroy the market, Carney offers no cheap non-intermittent options.  If he succeeds in shutting down our fossil fuel industry Canada will quickly become a third world country because those African countries with their new NG finds are there trying their hardest to fill the demand. They know it will help bring them out of poverty. Meanwhile, we already have all the infrastructure in place to satisfy demand, but our government wants to destroy this opportunity at the expense of the middle class. It makes no sense.  Natural Gas is the avenue for future prosperity for all of Canada.  Ignoring this is a fast trip to the poor house.

The following is a quote from the ex-professional Greenpeace protester and former Minister of Climate Change who is still chirping about pipelines even though he is now the Minister of Canadian Culture.

“The Canadian energy regulator, as well as the International Energy Agency, are telling us that probably by 2028, 2029, demand for oil will peak globally and it will also peak in Canada,” 

…Steven Guilbeault, May 14. 2025 (Not surprising, Carney is PM)    

He believed peak oil was in the 1990’s. Today, Suncor continues to break production records.  I don’t know about you, but I do not a want a moron like this (or any current Liberal), to dictate, let alone represent, my identity as a Canadian. Sorry Canada! You get what you vote for.