All we hear today is that interest rates are high.  In comparison with the past 3 years this is true.  But, based on records since 1954 they are in the normal range, between four-and- six percent, depending on what side of the transaction one is on. A risk-free rate of four-points provides savers a decent return on savings while banks can lend at 6%, a healthy two-percent spread.  These interest rates have served Canada well. Interest rates are not the main issue.

The biggest problem is Trudeau. He has put in place severe government regulations and higher taxes that must continue to cover his wasteful spending on our dime. Our tight regulations make permit applications last upwards of a decade and cost millions of dollars before shovels can break ground.  This is amongst the longest wait time in the world and makes us non-competitive.  The result is that we kiss goodbye trillions of foreign investments and encourage Canadians to invest outside of the country. Both started occurring once it became likely Trudeau would be voted in.

Countries around the world are developing their resources while we refuse to even though the world prefers ours.  If Trudeau was a true EV believer, he would have opened The Ring of Fire, a vast area located in Northern Ontario rich in the metals used in batteries.   This has been known since the fifties but there has never been a reason too until now. Yet these resources cannot be mined until a heavy-duty highway and airports are built which will take at least a decade because of current government regulations. 

The EV market is so baffling from an economic perspective.  The cars cost too much. They certainly do not result in less greenhouse gas once the supply chain is factored in, and it is a welfare business that survives on legislation, subsidies, and tax incentives.  Governments around the world are throwing gobs of money at the sector, even though they cannot afford to. These companies can very easily finance these projects themselves with cash, but they see no long-term investment. They would have already jumped into the market or bought out Tesla a decade ago if they did.  

Ottawa gave Volkswagen $13b that will be disbursed over 10 years and the Ontario government is also pitching in half a billion. The company made $29b(Cdn) in profits last year and are laughing all the way to the bank thanking Canadians for not putting their shareholders at risk.  These companies realize that EVs will not be around long because cleaner forms of energy based on existing infrastructure are being developed, like hydrogen. Governments are also giving consumers part of the purchase price because the cars are too expensive. The same bells and whistles can be had in an ICE for 30% less. There is no incentive to buy without the gift. This has been proven in every country that has cut these handouts.    

The market price of the metals used to make batteries have been in a freefall for the past two months.  The price of lithium is down 60% from one year ago.  Cobalt, nickel, and copper are down 55%, 28%, and 15%, respectively.  Given the falling cost of inputs, why are governments rushing to throw our money at these businesses?  When governments do this, you know the chances of survival are slim.  The EV is shaping up to be one of the biggest frauds put on taxpayers.  By next decade the world will have moved beyond the EV, just like they did in the 1850’s.

The transition from gasoline and diesel could be fatal for the economy because the two make up sixty percent of oil company revenues which shares in the cost of operations and investment. Once this is removed, the price of everything you touch which includes all construction, EV's, solar panels, and wind turbines will increase substantially because the lost revenue will be recovered further downstream in the more-refined markets in the form of higher prices. There are roughly 6000 products used daily that exists only because of oil.  People say these companies will just shrink or even shrivel away with a switch to EV’s, but the truth is our whole civilization relies on the resouce in some form or other and always will, meaning these companies are not going to disappear. Tampering with the current system is nothing but a recipe for disaster. 

The G7 is allowing unelected environmentalists such as the UN and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to run their countries.  These extremists only care about their paycheque which is earned by strangling the economy. Every country that has allowed this experienced a declining standard of living for the majority, like we are experiencing here in Canada today. Sacola’s view is that the climate change movement is based on politics and fantasy, not science. There is no denying that the climate is changing, but the earth is 4.5 billion years old and there is nothing occurring today that did not occur in the past. That is a fact. Governments falling for this trap have increased household expenses, have not changed the pace or form at which the climate is changing, and has made zero improvement to the economy. Much of Europe has realized this and are back to using more coal, nuclear, and natural gas.    

The earth is the greenest it has ever been since the last ice age. The world population has grown, and the average life span has increased every year since the use of oil.  The negative effects from oil on the environment and humans have clearly been minimal. The only fossil fuel environmentalists should be targeting is coal which China and India are building hundreds of plants  meant to last 80 years. Isn't it convenient that climate alarmists never talk about this? That is because when it comes to professional protestors and lobbyists, Canada and the other G7 nations are where the money is at.

The latest budget proves all members of the Liberal and NDP party need a basic economics and financial planning course. They need to learn balancing the books will result in higher tax revenue in the future because it allows for a competitive tax-rate that attracts investment into the country.  This capital inflow increases GDP which includes job creation and results in additional tax revenue that can accommodate lower taxes in the future. Foreign investment also puts upward pressure on the currency which creates wealth for all Canadians. Every country with a weak currency always has a lower standard of living compared to a country with a strong one.    

The budget increases our already out-of-control debt.  It is estimated that Ottawa will pay $45b ($1,100 per breathing Canadian) in interest charges this year alone.  This assumes debt and interest rates do not increase from today’s levels.  The interest creates wealth and jobs for very few whereas investments in things like healthcare, military, natural resources, and infrastructure is what create a robust economy, and more tax revenue. 

The Liberals could easily balance the books by cutting the size of government (and allowing our resources to be developed). Last year, 335,957 people worked for the federal government – up 30.7% from 2015, meanwhile our population grew by 8.5%.  The size of Parliament can be slashed as well. Why do we have one of the world’s largest number of cabinets and allow it to accomplish nothing meaningful?  There are 39 of them managed horribly by 40 ministers and many overlap. Furthermore, what is the purpose of these bureaucrats when Ottawa goes out and hire consultants to do the same job?  Most governments are successful with 10 cabinets. Any job losses will be welcomed by the private sector. 

Trudeau and his climate extremism is the problem.  It is well laid out in the budget.  Things like the Carbon Tax scares capital away from Canada. This costs jobs and profits which can be directed at research and design. We are leaders in clean energy and technology and have made some of the largest strides lowering GHG’s in the world, but our airhead PM is slowing innovation and the speed at which he wants to achieve his goal of beating climate change.  He makes zero sense. 

Attempting a move off fossil fuels will prove to be an economic nightmare. According to the Liberals the switch will cost at least $60 billion to $140 billion per year to reach net-zero by 2050. The Budget read, “it will be up to the private sector to make the majority of these investments, but to avoid the consequences of underinvestment, it is critical that governments invest in policy frameworks capable of mobilizing private capital.”  This statement is humorous because it points out that private capital does not see longevity in the sector and is staying away.  Otherwise, there would be no need for “frameworks capable of mobilizing private capital” because money always travels to the highest return.  

It makes more sense to cut taxes rather than hand out rebates and create administration costs in the process. The most productive budget would move towards a flat tax on all income. This lowers the expense of tax collection, increases honesty amongst taxpayers, and attracts business. Plus, people and business can spend money more responsibly than any government can. 

Perhaps the only nice thing about the budget is the number of corporate tax credits for making green investments.  This may be the only positive because the industry is not profitable and will most likely not be before the credits expire, so there will be little loss to taxpayers. Other than that, it shows Canada is a leaderless country drifting further into financial trouble.  Any more budgets like this one and our dollar will sink to the low sixties.  This means every Canadian will become 18% poorer from today and almost 40% worse off in the global economy since Trudeau got into power.  This will help Trudeau’s goal of making Canada a third world country.

Ottawa must be cleaned out today. We are sliding down the economic ladder because of environmental concerns that humans cannot control.   Everyone in Ottawa lives in a fantasy land when the world knows coal and natural gas are going to be the main source of energy for decades to come.  This government has caused both foreign and domestic investment dollars to leave by the trillions, driving our dollar down in the process and lowering Canadians wealth.  It has resulted in higher energy bills, no improvement to the environment, and has not prevented CO2 levels from increasing.

Thankfully, JT will be gone in 2025, at the latest. When he is gone, we will reopen our economy to the world. The low Loonie is temporary.  There is no point in buying foreign currency today because that boat has sailed. As soon as it looks like the Trudeau and his puppets are gone, our dollar will climb to over $0.80 just simply because of foreign investment returning. Invest for dividends and build a moat with 50% of your portfolio in one-year GIC’s, depending on your age. There are some great long-term opportunities out there too, so do not be afraid to dip your toes into the market.   

“In Canada waiting times have reached an all-time high, with a median delay of half a year between referral and treatment”.

  ...The Economist (January 21^st)

The Premiers met with Justin in February to discuss Medicare. It appears as if nothing is going to be done to fix the issues.  The meeting proved they have no idea what is wrong with it. Their resolution was more money.  This helps but the issue is the management. Demand persistently outstrips supply in our health system and will increase for about 15 years while the largest demographic shift takes place.  The problem is as much systemic as it is money.

We need more trained professionals at every level of the medical system.  There has been an acute shortage of staff for years. Over the next 4 years many professionals will quit, retire, or move to another country where they are welcomed. This will persist until we allow more medical professionals to enter the system.  The only ‘expertise’ that seems to be growing is a bureaucracy with a horrible track record.  These people only want two things; create lots of useless paperwork (ask your doctor, if you have one) and more money to build a bigger bureaucracy. 

There are two simple changes that will result in instant benefits. The first is we must make it easier for medical professionals trained outside of Canada to enter our system. The second is to add seats at our universities and tech schools.  By the governments inaction it means there will be no new seats in September.  This staffing shortage is set to last until 2028 at the earliest, assuming more seats are available in 18 months time.

There are plenty of changes Trudeau could be making. One is to lower the size of the government. It is over-governing and wasting a fortune in the process. Most national governments have fewer than 15 departments/ministries and things get done in a reasonable time. We have 39 and many are overlapping. Trudeau likes to hand out these positions to make each of his puppets feel important.  This gives them courage to build a huge set of unproductive laws that hurt the consumer.

Trudeau has increased the number of federal employees by 30%, to 336,000, since he became PM. The average salary is $74k. This does not include benefits or the use of consultants. Provinces have followed Ottawa in this wasteful spending.  Cutting at least half of the government across Canada will save billions that can be used to repair the military, the education and medical system combined.  Using the federal government as an example,  slashing 25% of the employees will save at least $6.2b every year. But of course, there is zero leadership with common sense to do so. 

Sadly, we suggest everyone build up a medical savings account for private treatments available out of country at a fraction of the cost here.  Many are already going to Mexico and Eastern Europe for treatment.  Notice not one of our political leaders talk about this? 

They simply do not care.

Trudeau proved his climate extremism and lack of respect towards one of our allies again. He denied Japan access to our natural gas, just like he did to Germany. It is rumoured that South Korea is thinking of asking Trudeau for help as well. This will be his third strike against the global community if he turns it down. Germany and Japan have been valued trading partners for decades.  Now both countries will have little to do with Canada until we get a new government.

Trudeau’s belief that he can eliminate CO2 emissions by limiting our economy is a joke.  He wants to bring in 1.6 million immigrants over the next 3 years while lowering CO2 emissions. This is impossible to achieve. Growing a population increases the demand for new housing, more food, and more infrastructure, to name a few, which collectively increases CO2 in the atmosphere.  

Natural gas does create slightly more CO2 but not if you take into consideration that wind and solar power must be replaced every twenty years. This means more demand for mining, oil for manufacturing and transport. Some fossil fuel and nuclear plants today have been in operation since the seventies and are expected to last 90 years. We have no idea how long the hundreds being built today will last, but if innovation is successful the lifespan could have doubled. Time will tell.    

If the climate movement was sincere, it would be forcing the use of hydro and nuclear power and protesting China and India. But they don’t.  You never hear the Greens protesting the clearcutting of rain forests or push for planting more trees either. It is because they cannot profit from it. It is obvious environmentalists do not want to bite the hand that feeds them.  Thankfully Mother Nature is in control and made the planet the greenest it has ever been since the last ice age because the environmentalists are not effective. 

The world is awash in natural gas.  It is cheap, clean, and a main ingredient in most of the conveniences we enjoy today. It is a resource that has literally pulled people out of poverty throughout our history and continues to do so. No sensible and responsible government is going to leave this asset in the ground.  Doing so is a direct slap in the face of all taxpayers and their standard of living.  

Coal has 400 years’ worth of reserves and demand is soaring. Not only all over Asia and India, but Europe as well.  The war in Ukraine has reminded many countries of the importance of fossil fuel and how we took the wrong path trying to green our economy so quickly.  Even Prime Minister Arden of New Zealand (another phony Green), announced she will be buying more coal from Indonesia, even though they have their untapped natural gas reserves.  Demand for coal is so strong that Indonesia has moved up to third place in production.  It is expected they will become the world’s largest exporter within a decade. This will help them move further up the economic ladder while the climate alarmists will take us a step down.

Every successful country relies on cheap and reliable energy. Business demands it, and utilities can be one of the major costs for companies. Try and tell a technology or manufacturing company they must rely on intermittent energy only and see what they do. They will take their investment elsewhere because they need to produce the highest rate of revenue and hope for a decent return as quick as possible.  This can take over a decade for many sectors so increasing the cost of electricity and the risk of power outages is too much. 

Coal and natural gas use will increase, along with the standard of living in those countries that use it. Meanwhile, Canada's will decline because our cost of energy will continue to rise.  It needs to be pointed out that wind and solar are no longer price competitive with natural gas.  The price of it has fallen 69% since last September to below three dollars today. 

Trudeau has made Canada the laughingstock of the world by not exploiting opportunity. Prior to Trudeau, Canada was considered a world leader in clean energy development, which the world demanded and used. Trudeau wants this to end so business will look for opportunities elsewhere in the world. For decades Canada has been in the upper level for productivity and growth in the 38 member OCED.  Thanks to Trudeau, it is predicted that by 2030 Canada we will be dead last.  Yet Canada has the best prospects in the world. Once Justin is gone, we will be on of the fastest growing economies in the G7.  Be patient and do not stray from Canadian blue-chips with a great dividend record.

According to Justin, President Biden is making a big mistake.  Not too long-ago Justin told Germany’s Chancellor there is no business case to sell our natural gas to them. In December, Biden announced that the Americans will sell all their gas to Europe if needed. It is estimated that by the end of 2023 the U.S. can be the world’s biggest exporter of gas, passing Qatar. For the Americans it means tens of thousands of new jobs and billions of tax revenue, something that Justin believes we do not need. 

For decades to come, fossil fuels will be the backbone of the global economy. Demand for oil continues to grow so we should be taking advantage of it because someone else will. Sadly, Justin is determined to close this sector in the name of climate change. These policies do not work. Has he not noticed the attempt has failed miserably across Europe? He clearly hasn’t.  He makes it obvious that his time is spent focusing on the front of a mirror rather than what is happening around him. 

The Liberals are determined to make Canada run on electricity. Trudeau is calling for gas-powered cars and natural gas in homes to be eliminated by 2035.  He has not told us where the consumer is going to get the money to buy costlier cars and solar panels yet.  He also fails to mention who will pay for replacing all natural gas appliances and retrofit the homes to pure electricity. It is estimated that it will take until 2040 to replace the stoves and add panels on every home; only if the electrical infrastructure is in place and there are enough mines for the minerals. 

Every year since Justin became PM CO2 has increased and there has been no abnormal weather patters across the globe.  If you go back before the Industrial Revolution, which climate extremists refuse to do, there is little evidence that CO2 causes global warming. Specifically, there has also been periods of cooling during high levels of CO2. It also shows that that more ppm of CO2 in the atmosphere the healthier the planet was.  Today we are 440ppm, life begins to die at 150 ppm, and the average has been 1200ppm over the last half billion years.   

The Liberal’s mismanagement is going to cause our dollar to fall to around $0.70US.  This will increase our inflation and prevent lowering interest rates.  If Trudeau continues his destructive path, then a $0.65US is possible in 2024. This means interest rates will have to increase much further to support the dollar. The only good thing is that Trudeau realizes that he needs the energy sector to survive financially.  Without the revenue he would not last a month, unless he prorogues Parliament again (which cannot be ruled out), if he thinks the party is about to give him the boot.

The House of Commons must be cleaned out.  Not one Liberal cabinet minister can give a speech without it being approved by Trudeau.  He is on record saying he admires China’s method of governing and is trying very hard to implement it here. The NDP are sellouts.  They have zero principals and have been bought and paid for by Trudeau.  They will do as they are told for the rest of their term because many of them will receive their pension and keep their benefits. A responsible member of the NDP would do the honourable thing and resign their seat, run as a Liberal or sit as an independent. 

What an embarrassment Ottawa is.  Canada has the best prospects in the world. But for some reason the Liberal Party wants to destroy us.  It will be painful until the Liberals are gone. When they are gone the country will prosper and the Loonie will recover to pre-Trudeau levels which is between $0.85 and par with the U.S. dollar.   Our economy will grow exponentially once foreign money knows Trudeau is gone. Since he came to power, $2.4 trillion more investment left Canada than entered and our dollar’s trading range dropped 12%.

Keep a minimum of 60% of your portfolio in 1-year insured GIC’s for the next while, depending on your age.