The EV Dream

We are told by various governments that in thirty years time all vehicles must be powered by electricity.  However, there are two major problems with this which no one talks about that will inhibit its growth.

 First, there is not enough lithium to meet the future demand for the needed batteries.  According to the University of Technology in Sydney, Australia, lithium production world-wide must increase by 8,840%.  This is impossible to achieve because reserves must increase by 280%.  No one knows where the lithium will be discovered.  Currently, Chile has the largest reverses, followed by Australia and Argentina. Many mines are proving to be unprofitable. Bolivia recently cancelled a $1.3b lithium mine development. Likewise, last March the Argentina government also cancelled a lithium mine project.

Mining lithium needs lots of water of which there will always be a limited supply high in the mountains of South America.  Plus, contrary to the Greens belief that the EV is the cleanest method of transportation, it too leaves a massive carbon footprint. Lithium mining also produces toxic chemicals causing water pollution leaving the potential for poisoning rivers and the water supply of communities. Lithium is also bad for the respiratory system.  Not to mention, extraction also depletes soil curtailing agriculture.  It is odd that environmentalists turn a blind eye to this.

In 30 years the world will be lucky to see 25% of the estimated demand. China today is the world’s biggest producer of EV’s. As a result, you can be sure today China is buying and stockpiling all the lithium they can.   This means the price for lithium will continue to rise due to shortages causing the purchase price between EV’s and the combustion engine to widen, if not remain where it is today.    Since there is no new viable battery on the horizon, a serious lithium shortage is probably a decade away.

Missing in the argument for the EV is that North America will need to build over 200 dams just to meet home and EV future electricty demand. This also means nuclear and coal fired power plants must also be built over the next three decades. The same is true in China where there is currently over 200 coal fired plants in construction with an additional 200 in the planning stage. Ironically not one Green anywhere in the world has protested these forms of energy.

If we are incorrect about the EV, Canadians can expect the price of electricity to increase for decades to come.  Soon it will become the household’s biggest expense.  B.C. should be let off lightly due to the existing Revelstoke Dam and those situated on the lower rivers close to the U.S. border.  The Site-C dam, which every environmentalist wants to prevent from being completed, will save B.C. and probably Washington State.  Ontario’s future is of constantly rising electricity bills.  Quebec will get cheap power from the soon to be completed Muskrat Falls in Labrador and Newfoundland.

The only saving grace for the EV will be if there are new scientific discoveries to replace today’s huge batteries and its compounds, which is doubtful.  If there are, and given the time is has taken to get to the technology that we have now, it is probably at least a few decades away.  The future for the EV is bleak for the time being. Sell your Tesla holdings!